Nearly 90 percent of India could be severely impacted by abnormal rise in temperatures caused by climate change, shows a new study even as the country reels from scorching heat conditions. Over 48 meteorological stations recorded more than 42 degrees Celsius on Tuesday, with the highest at 44.2 in Odisha.
According to the report, heatwaves – recurrent and more lethal now – will not only adversely hit people’s productivity, health and well-being but critically hamper the country’s progress towards its sustainable development goals to an extent not previously understood or known.
The study, led by researchers from University of Cambridge in UK, analysed India’s latest heat index (HI) along with climate vulnerability index (CVI) using 2022’s record-breaking heatwave as a case study. It shows that heatwaves are now likely to put more states at extreme climate risk than previously estimated by the government.
“Heat waves are getting more intense in India, putting 80% of the country’s people in danger, which remains unaccounted for in its current climate vulnerability assessment. If this impact is not addressed immediately, India can slow its progress towards sustainable development goals. It is high time that climate experts and policymakers re-evaluate the metrics for assessing the country’s climate vulnerability,” the authors said.
India usually assesses its vulnerability to climate change through CVI – an index devised by the department of science and technology (DST). According to this index, around 20 percent of the country is highly vulnerable to climate change but the heat index puts 90 percent of India in the danger zone, the researchers said.
For instance, states like Punjab and Haryana, which have witnessed temperature anomalies of 6 to 7 degrees Celsius, are otherwise classified as “low” on climate vulnerability but face high risk due to heatwaves.
Delhi at high heatwave risk
The report shows that almost all of Delhi, with its 32 million population, is threatened by severe heatwave impact, which is not reflected in its recent state action plan for climate change.
“Our estimation shows that 100% of the city is at ‘danger’ HI (heat index) levels. This is concerning as the current heat-action plans are designed and implemented as per the Delhi government’s vulnerability assessment, which does not include HI estimations,” the authors said in the study, which is published in peer-reviewed journal PLOS Climate. This is further worsened by fast-paced urbanisation leading to a “heat island effect”, they said.
Rethink heat impact at policy level
Despite its severity, India still does not notify it as a disaster on a national scale. Researchers led by Ramit Debnath, an inaugural Cambridge Zero Fellow, stress that their core finding is that these lethal heatwaves are set to weaken India’s progress in achieving the sustainable development goals (SDG).
India has committed to achieving 17 UN SDGs, including no poverty, good health and well-being, and decent work as well as economic growth. But a trend analysis of the past 20 years from 2001 to 2021 on their progress, with the mortality due to extreme weather events, shows that while such events have intensified, the pace of SDG progress has slowed down. In fact, in the last three years, India’s Global SDG rank has slipped due to failure in achieving the targets for 11 out of 17 goals.
The team used the latest government data publicly available on state-level climate vulnerability indicators from National Data and Analytics Platform to classify severity categories. They then compared it with India’s progress in SDG over 20 years (2001-2021) while also taking into account extreme weather-related mortality during the period.
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