As director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, University of Oxford, Prof Sir Andrew J Pollard has had a fulfilling journey. The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine that his lab developed saved around 63 lakh lives in 2021 alone. In an exclusive interview, Prof Pollard says though Covid-19 XBB.1.16 variant can cause infections even in those who are vaccinated, pandemic levels of hospitalisations and deaths are unlikely. “The variants can spread in the population as a wave of minor illness but can’t spread as a pandemic,” says the 58-year-old.
■ India’s active caseload crossed 37,000-mark on Tuesday. Even fully vaccinated people are getting infected, and this has been a matter of concern. Does the surge in cases indicate that vaccine induced immunity is waning?
The increase in cases in India shows that XBB. 1. 16 can cause infections in people who have been vaccinated because the virus has adapted to being able to transmit even in the presence of immunity from vaccines. There has also been some waning of immunity from the very high levels immediately after vaccination but there is still good immunity across the population against the virus. Even with some waning and emergence of new immune-evading variants, this does not mean that the pandemic can come back because we still have very good immunity against severe disease and so high rates of hospital admissions and deaths will not occur, despite the annoying and unpleasant increase in infections.
■ What would you do differently if you were given another chance to make a Covid vaccine?
If we were making a Covid-19 vaccine again, we would do it in the same way, but I think we would find ways to make it more quickly. During 2020 up to 10,000 people died every day while we waited for the vaccines to be developed. If we could cut just a few days off the development timelines, we would have an even greater health impact. Airfinity, a predictive health analytics pioneer, estimates that vaccine saved as many as 20 million lives in 2021 – with the biggest impact being from the OxfordAstraZeneca-Serum Institute of India vaccine which is believed to have saved as many as 6. 3 million lives that year. Just imagine the impact if we could have got the vaccine over the line a few months earlier. The G7 countries has proposed that vaccines are made in 100 days in future pandemics and scientists all over the world are looking at how we might achieve that mission.
■ Experts say that XBB. 1. 16 is immune evasive but it cannot evade Tcell immunity. Your views.
Covid-19 variants avoid the immune responses needed to prevent infection in our noses and throats. However, there are other antibodies and T cells which can stop the virus from causing severe infections and prevent Covid-19 from causing pandemic levels of hospitalisation or death.
■ XBB. 1. 16 is picking up additional mutations. Is it likely to trigger another wave in India?
Each new variant can cause new infections because the virus mutates to allow it to infect the nose and throat despite the presence of immunity. If it didn’t do this, Covid-19 would disappear as we are all now very highly immune against the older variants that have already been around. The variants don’t wipe out all immunity — they can spread in the population as a wave of minor illness, but they can’t spread as a pandemic.
■ Virus mutations seem to be making the current vaccines ineffective. Do we need better vaccines now?
Virus mutations do not make the vaccines ineffective. They are still saving lives every day —many of our friends and relatives would have been lost if we did not have vaccines. The virus mutations only evade the immune responses that allow the virus to spread but not those that stop the pandemic. If we could predict which variants were going to come next, we could prevent mild infections with a new vaccine as well as the severe disease that is still blocked. However, we are not yet able to predict which virus mutant will come next and so any new vaccines that are made can only cover the last variant and not the next one.
■ Does living in a highly sanitised environment reduce the odds of infections?
We know from the pandemic that reducing contacts between people with social distancing, lockdowns and careful hand washing can reduce the chance of infection… But it is healthy and natural for humans to interact with one another and so we are lucky to have vaccines which have brought us back to normality.
■ India’s active caseload crossed 37,000-mark on Tuesday. Even fully vaccinated people are getting infected, and this has been a matter of concern. Does the surge in cases indicate that vaccine induced immunity is waning?
The increase in cases in India shows that XBB. 1. 16 can cause infections in people who have been vaccinated because the virus has adapted to being able to transmit even in the presence of immunity from vaccines. There has also been some waning of immunity from the very high levels immediately after vaccination but there is still good immunity across the population against the virus. Even with some waning and emergence of new immune-evading variants, this does not mean that the pandemic can come back because we still have very good immunity against severe disease and so high rates of hospital admissions and deaths will not occur, despite the annoying and unpleasant increase in infections.
■ What would you do differently if you were given another chance to make a Covid vaccine?
If we were making a Covid-19 vaccine again, we would do it in the same way, but I think we would find ways to make it more quickly. During 2020 up to 10,000 people died every day while we waited for the vaccines to be developed. If we could cut just a few days off the development timelines, we would have an even greater health impact. Airfinity, a predictive health analytics pioneer, estimates that vaccine saved as many as 20 million lives in 2021 – with the biggest impact being from the OxfordAstraZeneca-Serum Institute of India vaccine which is believed to have saved as many as 6. 3 million lives that year. Just imagine the impact if we could have got the vaccine over the line a few months earlier. The G7 countries has proposed that vaccines are made in 100 days in future pandemics and scientists all over the world are looking at how we might achieve that mission.
■ Experts say that XBB. 1. 16 is immune evasive but it cannot evade Tcell immunity. Your views.
Covid-19 variants avoid the immune responses needed to prevent infection in our noses and throats. However, there are other antibodies and T cells which can stop the virus from causing severe infections and prevent Covid-19 from causing pandemic levels of hospitalisation or death.
■ XBB. 1. 16 is picking up additional mutations. Is it likely to trigger another wave in India?
Each new variant can cause new infections because the virus mutates to allow it to infect the nose and throat despite the presence of immunity. If it didn’t do this, Covid-19 would disappear as we are all now very highly immune against the older variants that have already been around. The variants don’t wipe out all immunity — they can spread in the population as a wave of minor illness, but they can’t spread as a pandemic.
■ Virus mutations seem to be making the current vaccines ineffective. Do we need better vaccines now?
Virus mutations do not make the vaccines ineffective. They are still saving lives every day —many of our friends and relatives would have been lost if we did not have vaccines. The virus mutations only evade the immune responses that allow the virus to spread but not those that stop the pandemic. If we could predict which variants were going to come next, we could prevent mild infections with a new vaccine as well as the severe disease that is still blocked. However, we are not yet able to predict which virus mutant will come next and so any new vaccines that are made can only cover the last variant and not the next one.
■ Does living in a highly sanitised environment reduce the odds of infections?
We know from the pandemic that reducing contacts between people with social distancing, lockdowns and careful hand washing can reduce the chance of infection… But it is healthy and natural for humans to interact with one another and so we are lucky to have vaccines which have brought us back to normality.
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