However, others are not convinced that either the intensity of the protests, or the increasing criminalisation of them, will have an impact on how members of the public actually feel about climate policy. Daniel Saldivia Gonzatti, a post-doctoral research fellow at WZB Berlin Social Science Center, recently conducted a study measuring both participants’ views on climate protests and on climate legislation more broadly.
“We found that people have quite a negative view of climate protests,” he said. “They have less support for them, less sympathy, and see them as less legitimate than traditional demonstrations.” However, his research found this had no bearing whatsoever on people’s views on climate policy. “Politicians have argued that these protests damage the cause,” he said. “But we found that although people dislike [the protests], they have no effect on what degree they think climate change policy is important.”
In Germany, support for the climate movement has halved following the rise of street blockades by more radical activists, according to a survey by More in Common Germany, an initiative that researches social cohesion. “All parts of society are much more critical of the climate movement today than they were two years ago – it has not gained or maintained ground with anyone,” says the organisation. While many people see a need for strong actions by the climate movement, the share of respondents who say that protests go too far grew substantially.
More in Common warned that a divisive debate can slow climate protection if it is pitting people against each other along cultural divides, and calls for a unifying debate. Some people partly blame radical activists for the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in polls. The more moderate Fridays for Future movement has also repeatedly accused the Last Generation activists of dividing society: “The climate crisis needs solutions for society as a whole, and we can only find and fight for them together, not by turning people against each other in everyday life.”
Making mainstream climate policies more palatable?
As to what the impact on public opinion may be in the longer term, some academics have identified what they term the “radical flank effect” of social change movements. “When the efforts of the movement are frustrated, radical segments emerge and deploy more disruptive tactics,” Heather Alberro, lecturer in global sustainable development at Nottingham Trent University, writes in The Conversation. “These serve to render the demands of their mainstream counterparts more palatable in the eyes of governments and the public, effectively advancing the entire movement’s agenda.”
WZB Berlin’s Social Science Center’s Gonzatti believes this may already be happening in the climate protest space. “Look at Fridays for Future – they are now viewed as the moderate environmental movement,” he says. However, he also points out that it is difficult to closely study long-term effects on public opinion as it is so hard to disentangle other influencing factors.
Even if it is tricky to state for certain how public views on climate may be impacted by protestors in the coming years, many researchers believe the effect on those joining in the demonstrations themselves is clear: taking part in protests appears to solidify eco-conscious behaviours. People appear more likely to adapt their behaviours when they see themselves as part of a group, and protesting delivers this sense of belonging
There is little sign that the police crackdown on protestors will ease up in the near future – if anything, it looks on track to intensify. But climate protesters themselves don’t appear to be giving up the fight. “The government thinks [oppression] will stop protests, but I’m not sure it will,” says Chada the lawyer. “I think it will lead to more people in prison. But I don’t think it will stop the protests themselves.”
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