With Canada’s allegations, Indian diplomacy confronts its most serious challenge in recent times. The issue has dominated international headlines. It has forced friendly western governments to take positions. It has also led to a greater education about Canada as a hub of extremism and terror. External affairs minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Washington DC this week will serve as a critical intervention in clarifying India’s stance in public and finding a modus vivendi around the issue with American policymakers in private.
But Canada’s allegations should not distract us from five international trends, all of which intersect with Indian diplomacy, and have been visible at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York.
First, the world is exhausted with Ukraine. Yes, Washington alone has sent $76 billion to Kyiv since January 2022, with over $46 billion in military aid. Despite Republican anxieties in the House, the United States (US) administration is determined to continue this line of support to defend Ukrainian sovereignty.
For its part, Russia continues to blame the West at the UN for the conflict and has shown no sign of letting up its brutality on the ground. And it seems to be privately waiting for November 2024 to see if Donald Trump returns to the White House, leading to a possible reset in the American calculus. But beyond the principal players, voices from the Global South indicate they are tired of dealing with the consequences of a conflict they have nothing to do with and which has no military solution, an echo of India’s original line when the war broke out.
Two, most of the world is concerned about Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), climate finance, and preparing for the future. The world is behind on meeting SDGs. The pandemic, the Ukraine-Russia war and economic crises have set back countries from meeting the goals while the issue of resourcing for SDGs remains contentious. India’s G20 presidency made progress on resourcing and also showcased its model of digital public infrastructure in driving inclusion. UN officials have told India that the G20 deliberations on SDGs fed into the SDG summit at the UN and the UN would like India to remain engaged on the issue. Delhi will be happy to do so.
Climate finance discussions are getting tied with the reform of multilateral development banks, where, once again, the Indian presidency has taken the lead in presenting recommendations of an expert group on both expansions of the mandate of these banks to include climate, but not at the cost of the battle against poverty, and ways to resource them better. The UN is very keen to partner with India in pushing this forward.
The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, before leaving office, wants to end with a grand “summit of the future” in 2024. This may be a good moment for India to push through its demand for reformed multilateralism — for what future can there be in global governance which doesn’t include India and any country from Africa or Latin America in UN Security Council — and bypass the logjam in the intergovernmental negotiation process on reform blocked by China; parts of Africa under Chinese influence; and a group of naysayers who don’t want regional rivals to get the coveted seats. The summit of the future may be the moment to take the issue straight to the UNGA, where China will have to show its hand rather than hide behind the principle of consensus while blocking consensus in practice.
The third trend is the US reaching out to the Global South on its own. Fully aware that the future geopolitical battle will be fought in these 130-odd countries, here is what Washington has done just this week. Joe Biden is hosting the leaders of the Pacific Islands in Washington DC stepping up US diplomatic, security, climate and developmental assistance in the region. The US held its first summit with five Central Asian countries, kicking off a new plurilateral grouping, C5+1, in New York. The US also launched a new forum for cooperation among 32 Atlantic countries, including coastal countries from Africa, Europe, North America, South America, and the Caribbean.
This is good news for India, which is already ahead of the curve in deepening its engagement with the Global South and sees its own partnership and American engagement as complementary, not competitive, a far cry from the Cold War years.
The fourth trend is India-specific. Last year, this column, from the UN week in New York, argued that the India Way is winning. This year, there was even more evidence of this at two events in the Global South. Leaders from Samoa, Guyana, Mauritius, Maldives, Bhutan, Dominica, Jamaica, and St Lucia hailed New Delhi. They made three points. One, India had delivered when these countries needed assistance and help most with the provision of Covid-19 vaccines when much of the world had turned away. Two, India was at the high table with its G20 presidency but had not said “bye bye” to where it was coming from, but instead, provided a platform to Global South countries. And three, India was articulating issues that concerned the wider Global South at every platform despite its own challenges of development.
And finally, the UN itself remains stuck. It is the only organisation with the buy-in of all member States, it does tremendous development work, it is a forum for civilised discussion, and it offers the only semblance of semi-moral authority in an anarchic world. But it is ineffective in meeting its fundamental duty of maintaining peace and security. It is increasingly rendered dysfunctional due to the geopolitical divide in the Security Council.
It is dependent on the dominant actors for both money and authority. And it is making itself even more irrelevant if its decision-making structures don’t change, with even four of the P5 leaders (Biden was the exception) choosing to skip the summit this year. This paradoxical story of the UN’s importance and irrelevance remains, but within that wider matrix, India has done well in shaping the narrative as a responsible power that cares for the global good.
The views expressed are personal
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