According to The Hill, “A weaker Atlantic hurricane season is in line with the El Niño pattern that’s expected to take over by late summer or early fall. While El Niño can strengthen hurricane season in the central and eastern Pacific, it tends to contribute to weaker hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said there is a 62% chance El Niño will take over between May and July, and an 80% to 90% probability it will form by fall.”
In terms of locations, it is likely that Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Florida are likely to be hard hit again in 2023, as they were in 2022.
Dan Kottlowski, a senior meteorologist and hurricane expert at AccuWeather, said: “Based on climatology and an evolving El Niño pattern during August through October, the highest chance for direct and significant impacts will be from the Florida Panhandle around the entire state of Florida to the Carolina coast.”
In 2022, there were 14 named storms, including eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Despite this, it also had the third costliest hurricane on record (Hurricane Ian, $114.0 billion.)
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